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Financial futures facing the liquidity test (hotspot perspective)

in 2013, financial futures market further expansion. Bond Futures long separated after 18 years in the market, debut on September 6, 2013. Since listing, in good condition. Due to the absence of the bodies, volume was relatively light. 2013 Futures trend February hit new highs for the year, the overall downward trend. June "shortage of money" hit, Futures hit a 3 year low, entered in December, "the money shortage" situation about again, futures decline, is expected to bear for the year


reform period refers to the maximum power

2013 financial futures illiquid suppression. As of market close on December 27, and stock index futures contracts in a row as a whole fell 210.6, or 8.3%.

trend of stock index futures fluctuated complex bottom this year, CSI futures believe that dominant market power from three aspects: the first is the liquidity level, followed by reform; the other is the macro-economic level. From the perspective of social mobility as a whole, since the first quarter of 2013 after the ultra-easy, and gradually moved to neutral-tight situation, especially June 2013 was once running out of cash, although it improved in the second half, but up funds rate centers.

2014 dominant force will remain as a continuation of the above three factors, but the impact slightly change: leading factors of the reform will be a top priority, mobility is a secondary influence, and continuing in a period of stability, influence or further weakening.

CSI futures analysis in 2014 as the deepening reform in the first year, is expected to increase industry investment may hit reforms, output is also likely to benefit, can also bring new points of economic growth.

CPC Central Committee on several major issues of deepening reform of the decision not only from a strategic perspective on the formation of market confidence boost and reform direction also found a large number of powerful investment story, since this round of reform is medium-and long-term planning, so that reform will not happen overnight and gradually step away, especially in the first half of 2014 Two sessions before and after the central reforms of the conditions will be gradually implemented, and therefore, along with step by step clear of the reform policy, boosted not only the message, there are real influence brought by the reform.

in addition, Zheng futures analysis in 2014 GDP growth will remain at a 7.5% level, expected investment growth rate, or slightly slower, but exports and consumption increase slightly, so safeguard GDP have poor performance, down worried pressure was slightly tempered, But in the central economic work Conference made clear to prevent excess capacity risks and risks under the structure in two major directions, the domestic economy is still unable to start a new growth cycle, macroeconomic level will not provide much boost to the market.

falling Treasury bond futures start

2013 Central Bank open market operations "short lock long" money market liquidity to maintain tight balance, interest rate debt demand difficult start and over 3% again since September CPI, inflation pressure increases, the Interest-rate debt market bid rates even higher Treasury bond futures prices falling over. Treasury bond futures 1403 contract lows to 91.184, today on December 27 or 3.31%.

China Merchants futures expected first half of 2014 capital tension will not be significantly improved, medium-and long-term interest rates still have some upside, on the 10-year bond yields likely to wear 4.8%, liquidity tensions will ease in the second half, but the medium-and long-term interest rates are still at a high level.

monetary policy on interest rates, China Merchants futures think 2014 may occur qianjinhousong of monetary policy, interest rates will be down "v"-shaped, currency will loose all year round.

largely because of the continued development of financial innovation, appeared on the market in 2013 balance card, Baidu's rental management raised financing and the new Financial sector the "catfish effect", second half of 2013 loss bank balances faster, 2014 financial innovation will be continued and strengthened, rates are expected to further raise. In addition, interest rate liberalization is the 18 session of the important task of determining interest rates will definitely promote the release medium-and long-term interest rates continue to rise.

, however, later with the Chinese economy is quite obvious, is expected in June after the funds rate peaked in order to complete the objectives of economic growth, the Central Bank may be appropriate to relax the liquidity management in the second half and pay more attention to achieve the goal of economic growth, improvement in liquidity could drive interest rates lower in the second half.

2014 years or are still short of money

2014 financial futures market still facing problems of liquidity.

CSI futures expects greater probability of 2014 for this tight, although the Central Bank is likely to maintain moderate liquidity, robust tone or moderately relaxed, but market-oriented interest rate coupled with the fierce competition in the banking industry, makes it difficult for risk-free interest rate short-term effectively improved.

for capital markets of funds level, table views rendering vacancy money of situation, while market volume always cannot continued effective zoom, on the is is new IPO heavy kai, and new ban expansion increased has market funds surface of needs, but in the card futures think, market not deficiency money, deficiency of is confidence, reform or on repair market confidence brings active role, Therefore, in the context of improving confidence, whole or slightly better, particularly institutional money worth looking forward to.

in 2013, the most regrettable is that banks and other financial institutions have not yet entered the bond futures market. Market is expected in 2014, regulators will allow banks, insurance and other institutional speculators investing in Treasury bond futures and first pilot, then that may be taken in full swing, first control limits, then slowly zoom in small-run method. China Merchants Futures is expected, if the banking, insurance and other institutional investors as investment targets to Treasury bond futures, bond futures trading volume will be explosive growth.

China Merchants futures suggested that cash in the first half of next year recommended more attention to short duration strategies, futures suggest more attention to short selling opportunity. Late next year to focus on arbitrage and short term buying opportunity.